https://mail.disperser.info/blog/index.php 2026-04-18T23:40:52Z https://mail.disperser.info/blog/index.php?entry=entry250915-201752

This will be more destructive than even Odile in 2014.

Good luck.]]>

2025-09-16T00:17:52Z https://mail.disperser.info/blog/index.php?entry=entry241006-044528

Milton is in a patch of 30deg water and will remain there until it strengthens and effectively uses up that warmer water, surviving any sheering presently happening.

The system will likely then proceed as indicated in their forecasts. However; it will be later arriving than predicted and if sheering diminishes will strike as a major hurricane somewhere between the middle of Florida and between Florida and Cuba. So if you are in southern Florida you need to prepare now for a potential category 5 hurricane and associated storm surge.

This is going to be bigger than Helene folks. And if you were south of Helene and missed being affected Milton will take care of that...

Good luck folks.]]>

2024-10-06T08:45:28Z https://mail.disperser.info/blog/index.php?entry=entry210910-093323

Disperser has drug into the bay and we are in heavy weather conditions. My landing ramp for getting on and off the boat was nearly destroyed by waves. I'm on two anchors, both on rhode instead of chain. My third spare anchor is still where I had to cut the chain to leave it because it was fouled, and I just watched Duck Sloop, my 1966 Cal28 go by, likely with no anchor like whatsoever, so a definite complete loss.

Now, we just have to survive. My batteries aren't charging because my wind generators, well, they don't work in hurricanes.

It's going to be a rough few hours as the storm plays out. It's moving west but a strong band from an eyewall change is playing out and things are very rough. I estimate winds at 40 knots with gusts easily to 60.

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2021-09-10T09:33:23Z https://mail.disperser.info/blog/index.php?entry=entry210910-083852

The NHC should be sued out of existence for their negligence in forecasting, including again using the output of the model instead of the actual location of the storm.

It's odd to me, because twice now, the NHC has botched forecasts in a way specifically harmful to BCS, as if the NHC has taken revenge against me by endangering everyone here. It wouldn't surprise me, given the US State Department got my disability cut off by not transmitting communications between SSA and myself as they are obligated to do.

Anyway, my ship has drug, significantly, and I've lost one of my boats, it drug right off the anchor and is likely either anchored somewhere dozens of miles away, or washed up or sunk somewhere. It is a complete loss, no doubt. I have a sea anchor set up in case I lose both anchors or drag out of reach of my anchor line. At least my engine runs.

The only good news for me is that I moved to the abandoned boatyard I am seizing in the name of the federal government. At least I have a place to put things to dry and to live if this boat doesn't survive and I do.]]>

2021-09-10T08:38:52Z https://mail.disperser.info/blog/index.php?entry=entry210908-042251

However; the top of the center of circulation is moving eastward relative to the bottom, showing an increase in sheer.

These conditions are sure to change, as the contour doesn't go far before the system has a chance to go any direction for SSTs. The sheer should also diminish some and allow for strengthening.

I am of the belief this system will affect La Paz, and that it could affect La Paz directly as a Category 3 hurricane.

I will be keeping a close eye on this system. Do not put your faith in the NHC's forecast. I would not put it past them to endanger everyone in La Paz for the sake of trying to do so to me. The US State Department, after all, deliberately failed to submit documents for my disability and got them cut, I didn't even know until they stopped being deposited because the US State Department was supposed to send me any mail as they knew I have no way to receive mail here in Mexico.

I now have direct evidence of harassment of an American citizen seeking refuge in Mexico by the US Government, a clear violation of International Law and my rights. And given I have nearly every year embarrassed them with their wildly inaccurate and useless forecasts, they simply cannot be trusted when it comes down to it.

In case you need a reminder, the present forecast is nearly identical to the predicted path of Nora, which instead of going west of La Paz, was just west of the MAINLAND.]]>

2021-09-08T04:22:51Z https://mail.disperser.info/blog/index.php?entry=entry210907-155209

In the case of Olaf, we again have two choices, westward or northward, two directions the SSTs are warm enough for continued development. The air masses appear to be moving in such a way as to steer Olaf slightly west of north at the moment, which also explains why the sytstem is still elongated along that axis as the system is still connected to the parent tropical wave.

Conditions appear to be conducive for continued and even rapid development of this system. A persistent high remains over southern Baja but that may not be enough to keep tropical cyclones from affecting La Paz directly or indirectly.

I am keeping an eye on the system because I believe it is not more likely than not that it could affect La Paz, and likely within a week.]]>

2021-09-07T15:52:09Z https://mail.disperser.info/blog/index.php?entry=entry210906-204523

Expect the possibility of up to a Category 3 hurricane could come to La Paz in the next week or two. The longer it takes for the storm to come here, the bigger it will be.

I will be monitoring this storm carefully and updating my forecast accordingly.]]>

2021-09-06T20:45:23Z https://mail.disperser.info/blog/index.php?entry=entry210831-081936

Despite what the NHC and others may say, Nora persists as remnants. The center of circulation has elongated so much that it presents in satellite, which you can see in the link below. If you change to 20 images you will see the circulation extends from the mainland shoreline4 from Mazatlan to about Guymas but remains extremely narrow.

This is important because Mazatlan and Sonora are bot experiencing tropical weather, monsoon-like thunderstorms but outside monsoon conditions because the tropical system as brought those conditions with it. The circulation, even if only half, causes air to rise as it rotates. This creates low pressure which causes moist humid air to rise in the same way monsoon storms start. These are unusual conditions and should have remained forecast in my opinion.

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2021-08-31T08:19:36Z https://mail.disperser.info/blog/index.php?entry=entry210829-212054

We are currently receiving winds that represent entrainment into the storm, that storm is a low, it draws air from high pressure areas around it. Our barometric pressure is decreasing as a result, falling from a high actually above where it was before the tropical wave even came here some time last night.

I do not expect storms, only continuing wind which will waver between stronger and weaker as the storms play out on the sea.

As for me, I am quite exhausted. I had just finished pulling out nearly all of my hernias when I pulled the biggest back through loading a simple propane bottle. The good news is, I figured out how I did it, precisely how I do it when I pull chain by hand. So I have to be extremely careful doing anything that is anything like pulling chain. Hard to do at anchor.


Enjoy the day. It's quite warm of course, the desert heat is blowing across the peninsula instead of being drawn up into local storms. We won't see monsoons for at least a few days.


Word of warning: The next tropical system will not miss La Paz. If conditions are right for the worst case scenario, it can still occur, with the system tracking up the west side of the Sea of Cortez or the Pacific coast of the peninsula where the SSTs remain high having not been reduced by the storm; or across the peninsula itself of course.

The next storm is called Olaf by the way.



Final word. I am not ignorant of New Orleans. I don't have the energy to concern myself, but my heart goes out to the city which I am certain will never be rebuilt. It is a city my family is connected to in a small way, but a city I have never visited. I have been following the storm because its fate is connected to Nora's. I have watched and saw the storm was going to hit the city several hours ago. It breaks my heart to see it happen. It is a place that will be erased from the map by the time you have read this post. RIP New Orleans.
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2021-08-29T21:20:54Z https://mail.disperser.info/blog/index.php?entry=entry210829-091719

The storm is creating some big storms which present big enough to have me suggest that we could see big storms here in La Paz today. At the very least, we will get clouds and humidity from the storm today.]]>

2021-08-29T09:17:19Z