I am making a preliminary forecast for what I expect could be hurricane Marty.

An area of circulation off the Gulf of Tohanapec follows a compressed tropical wave. This hasn't been caught by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) yet, but I am calling it because it has every potential of hitting La Paz.

If this system forms, it is moving slow enough through conditions suitable enough to support hurricane formation. The system appears to me to be on a course that would put it on the pacific side of the peninsula, which could evolve into a path leading it towards La Paz. As I am only concerned with forecasting for my own location, La Paz, I am suggesting that there is a possibility of a tropical disturbance affecting La Paz within the next 4-7 days, most likely around 6 days from now.

Update 17 August 5am:

The system that could become Marty is the result of a very small tropical wave which while there is some apparent organization, it does not appear to be strong enough to be able to gather strength, thus it is not on the NHC's radar so to speak, that is, they are not forecasting it as a potential system.

I will delete or rename this post if Marty never even starts to develop.

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